Germany eyes €12B long-range strike arsenal to deter Russia

Key facts

• German MoD documents cited by POLITICO estimate “almost €12B” to build a long-range conventional strike arsenal; funding not yet approved and requires Bundestag consent.
• Low-cost cruise missile track targets fielding in 2027; three candidates named (Covenant Anthem, BARS from an unnamed Ukrainian firm, Fire Point’s Flamingo) with qualification missiles sought next year and framework contracts for mass production in preparation.
• US Typhon/Tomahawk initial capability targeted by end of decade; UK-German high-end cruise missile and hypersonic glide weapon under Trinity House Agreement targeted for mid-2030s with >2,000 km range ambition.

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Documents from Germany’s defense ministry, cited by POLITICO, set out a four-part long-range strike programme that Berlin believes will require “almost €12 billion” in budget funding, pending Bundestag approval. The stated operational intent is to give German forces the ability to hold at risk targets “far into the rear area of an adversary” with conventional weapons “below the nuclear threshold,” aligning the effort with NATO deterrence priorities as European capitals accelerate rearmament in response to Russia.

The fastest-moving line of effort is a low-cost, mass-producible cruise missile intended to complement higher-end munitions and enable saturation attacks against air defences. The documents indicate Germany aims to start fielding this weapon in 2027 and is already in contract talks with two suppliers, seeking missiles for qualification as early as next year. Three candidates are identified: Covenant Industries’ Anthem, a BARS missile offered by an unnamed Ukrainian company, and the Flamingo missile from Ukraine’s Fire Point. The programme reflects an explicit lesson drawn from Ukraine’s use of drones and missiles to strike Russian infrastructure: quantity and cost efficiency can generate operational effects that boutique inventories cannot sustain.

The second track is a US-sourced bridging capability. Chancellor Friedrich Merz told the Bundestag in early July that Germany had reached an agreement with Washington during the NATO summit in Ankara to acquire Tomahawk cruise missiles and deploy them in Germany, describing the move as closing a “strategic gap” while European systems are developed. The internal target is an initial capability of US Typhon launchers armed with Tomahawks by the end of the decade, implying a near-term reliance on US production capacity, export approvals, and integration timelines.

The remaining two tracks are UK-German cooperative developments under the Trinity House Agreement: a new high-end cruise missile and a hypersonic glide weapon, with initial capability aimed for the middle of the next decade and publicly stated range aspirations beyond 2,000 km. The documents suggest these UK-linked programmes account for the bulk of projected spending, with figures cited that aggregate to roughly €11 billion and ministry talking points rounding the overall requirement to “almost €12 billion.” For Europe’s defence-industrial and procurement community, the approach signals a deliberate portfolio strategy—mixing rapid, attritable munitions, an American off-the-shelf stopgap, and longer-lead European developments—intended to ensure Russia cannot assume depth provides sanctuary if deterrence fails.

Source: POLITICO Europe