France targets 400% surge in loitering munitions under new war-economy plan

Key facts

• Draft French military planning law allocates €8.5bn for drones and missiles by 2030 and frames co-financed industrial scaling as a “war economy” effort.
• France targets +400% loitering munitions stocks, +240% AASM Hammer guided bombs, and +30% Aster/Mica missile stocks by 2030.
• Draft reportedly includes no funding for the Eurodrone programme and signals studies for a Leclerc successor amid MGCS delay concerns.

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France is preparing a munitions-centric rearmament push that prioritises stockpile depth, production capacity and near-term readiness over expanding end-strength or adding major platforms. A draft update to the country’s multiyear military planning law seen by POLITICO would allocate €8.5 billion for drones and missiles by 2030 and explicitly links procurement to the adaptation of industrial infrastructure via co-financing of “priority production capacities,” framed as preparation for a “war economy.” The stated rationale is the demonstrated pace of consumption in high-intensity warfare, with Ukraine and the Middle East used as reference conflicts, and the need to replace air-defence missiles fired by the French air force in the Gulf against Iranian drone attacks.

The draft sets striking quantitative targets for precision and air-defence munitions. France aims to increase loitering munitions stocks by 400 percent by 2030, Safran’s AASM Hammer guided bombs by 240 percent, and MBDA’s Aster and Mica missile stocks by 30 percent. The plan is nested within a rising top-line spending profile, forecasting defence expenditures of €63.3 billion in 2027, €68.3 billion in 2028, €72.8 billion in 2029 and €76.3 billion in 2030, while acknowledging that annual budgets and procurement contracts will still need parliamentary approval and translation into acquisition actions by the French procurement agency.

For European procurement officers and industry, the salient dynamic is the feedback loop between French ordering and industrial scaling. The draft arrives amid public friction between the French state and manufacturers over what constitutes credible “mass production” readiness: industry has complained about insufficient orders, while government has pressed firms to invest in tooling and capacity ahead of contract signature. In parallel, MBDA’s leadership has indicated a 40 percent output increase in 2026, including doubling Aster production, signalling that French demand is likely to flow directly into wider European missile supply chains where MBDA is a prime actor.

The draft also implies trade-offs. It reportedly does not plan additional Rafale fighter jets or frigates, underscoring a readiness logic focused on munitions and enabling stocks rather than fleet growth. On land systems, Paris would launch studies for a potential Leclerc successor, reflecting concern over potential slippage in the Franco-German Main Ground Combat System timeline and the risk of a capability gap as Leclerc retires in the late 2030s. Most disruptive for Europe’s unmanned sector, the draft appears to allocate no funding to the much-delayed Eurodrone programme with Germany, Italy and Spain—an implicit signal that France may be de-risking ISR/MALE ambitions by shifting resources to faster, more attritable drone categories and immediately usable strike and air-defence munitions.

Source: POLITICO Europe